Monday, November 12, 2007

Romney's Competitive Position in the Early States

Mayor Giuliani’s “momentum-proof” national polling lead, Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny all walk into a bar…

You’re right. None of them exist.

Why the “frontrunner” label and fifty cents won’t even get you a cup of coffee nowadays:

Mayor Giuliani continues to hang his hat on national polls that show him garnering around 30 percent support, yet fully 100 percent of the electorate knows who he is. That is a very big gulf to have between the number of voters that know him and the number that actually support him.

National poll samples are largely a reflection of name awareness at this point in the campaign. The polls taken of voters in the early primary states reflect the opinions of voters who are the most engaged and most informed about the candidates. For Mayor Giuliani to have 100 percent of Iowa voters know who he is, yet only around 11 percent of those voters support him...that's a major problem for his candidacy.

The latest polls out in New Hampshire , Florida and South Carolina show that Governor Romney is perfectly positioned to be competitive in the early election contests.

The latest New Hampshire poll numbers from the University of New Hampshire and Marist College indicate that Governor Romney’s frequent travel to the Granite State —coupled with a message focused on his strong record of fiscal responsibility—has earned the campaign a competitive position with voters there. Here’s how the race has shaped up:
A contrast has emerged between Governor Romney and the other candidates in the field:

-Governor Romney’s message of lower taxes, his promise to cut wasteful spending and his support for the line-item veto have helped voters identify with him, as opposed to other candidates who have proposed tax hikes, voted against tax relief and brought lawsuits against the line-item veto in order to protect pork barrel spending and earmarks.

-Governor Romney has also continued to advocate his opposition to sanctuary cities policies that Mayor Giuliani embraced in New York City .

The competitive position in the New Hampshire surveys also comes at a time when other campaigns are now spending resources in the state with radio and TV advertising, in addition to direct mail efforts. Governor Romney still maintains his position even though Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are competing on the airwaves with their own radio and television advertising campaigns.

Meanwhile, in the South…

Recent Florida and South Carolina polls also show that Governor Romney’s attention to those states has helped a positive trend line emerge, putting the campaign in a more competitive position in states that are next up on the calendar after the traditional early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

52 Days to Iowa …But Who’s Counting?

There is very little doubt that the contests in these early primary states will continue to tighten as we draw closer to the caucuses and primaries. With Governor Romney’s current position, it is inevitable that rival campaigns will train their crosshairs on the governor in an attempt to tear down his current competitive position in the early states. In other words: Here come the attacks in the form of paid advertising.

But, our goal of attaining a competitive position in the early primary states is currently secure. The next few months will be dedicated to staying in a competitive position in the early primary states, introducing Governor Romney and his platform of ideas to more and more Republican voters and building out our national campaign infrastructure as we work towards securing the Republican nomination.

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